Although the reports may be annual, quarterly payroll reports are more common. In addition, some annual reports require that employers make quarterly deposits, requiring internal payroll reports to ensure that the entire liability is paid by year-end. The IRS regulates the requirements for federal tax reports, but reporting guidelines vary by state. Quarters Payroll reports are based on the calendar year even if the company files income tax on a fiscal-year basis that covers a different period, such as July 1 to June
The house price fall we had to have Business Outlook Q3 23 October But the geographic base of growth continues to narrow, growing more dependent on the US. That poses two problems.
First, synchronised strength tends to be more durable, so the fading synchronicity of the moment is — by definition — riskier than had growth been more widespread. The base is narrowing because Europe and Japan have lost some momentum in their growth. The second problem is that the spurt in US growth is mostly due to the juice coming from the large business and personal tax cuts enacted in late Those cuts are mostly a one-off prop to growth.
The upshot is that, while global growth is excellent now and should remain above trend init looks like heading back down the slippery slope come But that will be a Faustian bargain. Well, yes and no.
Inflation — like wage growth — actually bottomed inand it has been making glacial gains ever since. And we do forecast those gains to continue.
Neither the world nor Australia will see a rapid rebound in price pressures. The trend is far from universal. Japan and the Eurozone, for example, look likely to keep money as cheap as they can.
And China is pushing out stimulus in the face of US trade wars. But the US dominates global financial markets, and some of the higher costs of recent times have already shown up here as out-of-cycle rate hikes by the banks.
That is showing up as pain in a range of markets, including share markets. Meanwhile the huge US tax cut continues to propel the greenback up. We doubt that, though the impact of a trade war is likely to be far more muted than much media reporting would suggest.
However, as we see the wage acceleration as being glacial, we expect deceleration in job gains to be pretty slow too.
Yet while economic winds have been favourable, policy trends are threatening turbulence. Unfortunately for the longer term national interest, it may well be the pork-barrelling that wins that contest. And exports may also be the key reason why Western Australia will finally be able to surpass the growth in fast-flying South Australia in a year or so.
Infrastructure and consumer spending underpin current strength, but a peak is nigh in infrastructure, while sky high mortgages and weakening population gains pose problems for further out in time.
High coal prices, more tourists and government social spending are all providing temporary boosts to the economy. The lift in population flows from south of the Tweed is also good news, including via helping the housing market recovery.
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